News & Publications

Q2
2018

Our View

July 2018

The second quarter was characterized by continued uncertainty and market turbulence as investors grappled with strong corporate earnings offset by increased macro and political risks. Consequently, global equity markets showed mixed performance with the S&P 500 generating a positive return (+3.4%), while non-US developed market equities declined (-1.2%) and emerging markets receded (-8.0%)1. From our perspective, the outlook for equities has deteriorated somewhat for several reasons, outlined below. read more ❯

A Candid Coversation

2018

The work done at money management firms comprises typically three main functions: (1) Investing (obviously!); (2) Outreach (i.e., interacting with existing and prospective clients); and (3) for lack of a better term, Other (i.e., accounting, audit, compliance, HR, IT, and myriad important additional tasks that money management firms must do well in order to succeed). While seemingly distinct, these three functions are interrelated, the most obvious nexus being the imperative for investment pros seeking to steward Other People’s Money (OPM) to persuade potential clients to become and remain actual ones. read more ❯

Unnecessary Evils

2018

Founded at the turn of the current century by legendarily successful investor John Vogelstein, New Providence is led by experienced professionals who view investment counseling as a profession, not a business, and are committed to the pursuit of excellence in all aspects of their work. Such work centers on the shaping and ongoing refinement of both comprehensive and specialized investment programs for a select group of wealthy families and endowed charities. Given the US-centric bias of portfolios stewarded by many recipients of this call to action — a bias at odds with the very full current pricing of assets flattered by it — the time is ripe for such principals to undertake a thorough review of their investment policies and practices. read more ❯

Q1
2018

Our View

April 2018

After strong returns in 2017 and a remarkably strong January 2018, stock market volatility has increased and equities are now negative year-to-date. In effect, what we’re witnessing is a struggle between strong business conditions, a synchronized global expansion and strong corporate profits versus the increasing fear of a serious trade war, a shift from U.S. quantitative easing to tightening and severe negative news about leading technology companies. As we look ahead and try to balance these conflicting forces, we come to the conclusion that strong business and increasing corporate profits will probably outweigh trade wars and other fears. read more ❯

Fireside Chat

May 2018

Listen to an audio recording of the fireside chat between Ambassador Nicholas Burns and NP Co-Chairman David Salem from NP's 2018 Annual Investor Meeting. read more ❯

Q4
2017

Our View

January 2018

2017 will be remembered for strong equity returns and extremely low volatility; the S&P 500 total return was +21.8%, non-U.S. equities returned +27.8% . The primary driver of this goldilocks scenario was a global economic expansion and synchronized earnings rebound, the first time we have seen this broadly since the financial crisis. In addition, fears that quantitative easing would destroy economies via severe general price inflation have proven to be unfounded. We believe global equities are likely to continue to appreciate in an environment where there are few signs of excessive inflation and global monetary policy still remains loose. read more ❯

Q3
2017

Our View

October 2017

Geo-political risks, particularly North Korea, are elevated and episodically impacting financial markets. Combining this with higher stock market valuations, some signs of late cycle economics, and a challenging legislative environment might suggest that portfolios should be underweight risk assets, such as equities. However, we remind ourselves that unpredictable geo-political events are always present and are very difficult to assess with certainty as to timing and outcome. We also believe it is possible that a series of virtuous economic and business outcomes could evolve. As a result, we believe it is still too early to be underweight equities, although we have eliminated the overweight that portfolios had previously exhibited. read more ❯

Q2
2017

Our View

July 2017

In the second quarter the S&P 500 advanced 3.1%, bringing the index up 9.3% year to date1. We have used strength in the equity markets to further reduce exposure to U.S. equities, and we are now underweight U.S. equities within long-term growth strategies2 (predominantly common stocks). U.S. corporate profit growth has been the main driver of the stock market year to date; however, expectations for substantial reform initiatives in healthcare and corporate taxes appear bogged down in Washington, and are quite likely to be watered down and delayed. In addition, the Federal Reserve plans to begin “balance sheet normalization” which could result in higher interest rates, a higher cost of debt, and tighter money supply. read more ❯