News & Publications

Q2
2016

Our View

July 2016

U.S. equity investors have struggled with conflicting economic data, feeding arguments for both bulls and bears. The non-farm payroll number is a clear example of why investors are confused. May’s payroll number (11,000 new jobs) was very weak and declined for the third month in a row. The June payroll number was very strong (287,000 new jobs), indicating that May’s number was an aberration, confirmed as well by continued low unemployment claims. Bears have also cited the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve – often a sign of slowing growth or a possible recession. read more ❯

Q1
2016

Our View

April 2016

It has been an interesting and difficult quarter for investors. The S&P 500 closed last year at 2044 and now trades at 2060, a very modest gain for first quarter. However, on February 11th it sold at 1829, a decline of 10.5% from year-end, and down 14% since its peak of last July. In fact, the market’s behavior since then has been one of substantial swings; there have been four significant declines and four recoveries and, on balance we are still 3.2% below the peak last summer. Importantly, many stocks have performed much worse than the averages and have inflicted notable damage to portfolios. read more ❯

Q4
2015

Our View

January 2016

2015 will go into the record books as a disappointing year: developed and emerging market equity returns1 were mostly negative with only a few exceptions; U.S. Treasury and Agency bonds eked out a small return, and investment grade and high yield corporate bonds declined; other segments of the market did poorly, especially commodities. read more ❯

Q3
2015

Our View

October 2015

The stock market performed poorly in the third quarter as the S&P 500 total return was -6.4%, the worst quarter in four years. Global equity markets declined even more, with a total return of -12.1%(1). read more ❯

Q2
2015

Our View

July 2015

We continue to view the U.S. economy and equity market positively. We reach this conclusion in spite of the fact that economic growth has been disappointing and the market is no longer cheap in historical terms. The reasons for our continued optimism are the following: read more ❯

Q1
2015

Our View

April 2015

For the first quarter of the year the U.S. stock market returned about 1%, which obscures significant,almost daily volatility. Equity prices were affected by confusion as to when the Federal Reserve would increase interest rates, and by how much and how fast. read more ❯