Selected Publications

Publication Type:

Our View

April 2019

In the first quarter, the Federal Reserve made four separate statements to the effect that they had, or would, stop tightening and let the unstated impression that their next step might even be to start easing. One would be justified in thinking that they had decided to give the stock market a reason to go up. If that was in fact their intention, it worked. The S&P 500 which had been down 13.5% in the fourth quarter, was up 13.6% in the first quarter (see Table 1). As a result, equity holders should be more than satisfied with returns for the quarter. However, a closer look at fundamental developments present a more nuanced view, one that highlights a deceleration in the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy and corporate earnings. read more ❯

International Series - The Case for Selective Investments in Southeast Asia

April 2019

For investors with a long-term horizon seeking to generate growth from equity securities, Southeast Asia offers a large and diverse universe in which to find attractive investment opportunities. read more ❯

On "Passive" Investing

January 2019

The nub of this note is telegraphed by its title, with passive surrounded by quotes to underscore the fact that all investment strategies, even and indeed especially ultra-diversified ones, entail the exercise of human judgment. How so? Because no one has assembled or indeed could assemble a portfolio comprising fractional interests in all investable assets — not without making crucial judgments about which assets to include, in what weights, and not without somehow compelling pre-existing owners of non-marketable assets to sell slices of them to complete the exercise. Of course, no sensible investor would want to hold a truly comprehensive basket of investable assets, especially one constructed in accordance with the most widely followed rule for “passive” portfolio construction circa 2019, namely capitalization weighting. read more ❯

International Series - The Base Case for China

November 2018

We believe that the Chinese stock markets represent an attractive investment universe for active equity managers. read more ❯

Current View on U.S. Corporate Credit Opportunity

November 2018

High Yield corporate credit is currently unattractive in our view. We outline our rationale for limiting exposure to this asset class in the following slides. read more ❯

A Candid Coversation

2018

The work done at money management firms comprises typically three main functions: (1) Investing (obviously!); (2) Outreach (i.e., interacting with existing and prospective clients); and (3) for lack of a better term, Other (i.e., accounting, audit, compliance, HR, IT, and myriad important additional tasks that money management firms must do well in order to succeed). While seemingly distinct, these three functions are interrelated, the most obvious nexus being the imperative for investment pros seeking to steward Other People’s Money (OPM) to persuade potential clients to become and remain actual ones. read more ❯

Fireside Chat

May 2018

Listen to an audio recording of the fireside chat between Ambassador Nicholas Burns and NP Co-Chairman David Salem from NP's 2018 Annual Investor Meeting. read more ❯

Our Views published prior to 2019 are available upon request.
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